Trading Forex - New Korean Currency Crisis?

Posted in articles | Tuesday, October 28th, 2008 | No Comments »

Back in 1997 major slump rocked number of countries in Asia, an event that became known as “Asian crisis”. Effected countries included Taiwan, Thailand South and others. One of the memorable of the time came from one of leading Thai . He blamed this whole mess on , with being the main . The remarks went so far as to public statement of “not being able to guarantee his safety if he visited Thailand”. Quite ominous.

The fallout in South was brutal. The US has about doubled in value against the Won, with USD-KRW from just above 800 in early 1997, to 1600 by the year’s end. Local suffered similar , as did all areas of . Perhaps most telling was an enormous spike in , as the jobless soared to almost double , with about 9 million out of .

This author observed the aftermath first hand, during one of his trips to South at that time. of once high flying conglomerate Daewoo under burden of . The sight of many construction projects suspended or stopped all over Seoul and Pusan. Daily of scores of small . It was good time to visit South , due to low prices, but very difficult period for residents.

The has rebounded nicely since then and became one of Asia’s most dynamic economies. KRW strengthen considerably reaching level 900 against USD in 2007. The has recorded double digit gains in four of the last five years, gaining 32% in last year alone. like Samsung Electronics Co, and Hyundai Motors Co, have established themselves as some of the world’s leading .

Things have changed in 2008. like high , , external and deficit have shaken . While many countries have seen outflow of funds into the , this process became especially painful in South . The Won has become the Asia’s worst performing , loosing 20% to date. was no better, falling 25%, with farther sell off of equities expected.

These developments created widely spread comparisons to situation from 1997 and were quick to be picked by the press. International Monetary Fund disagrees with this assessment and expressed by saying that South is a mature and resilient with ’s fundamentals much stronger than a decade ago. Korean authorities, however, felt obligated to by intervention on Wons behalf in the open . This seemed to stop the bleeding for now.

What can be expected next? In all reality, 1997 type sell off is extremely unlikely. As South Korean is cooling down together with the , Seoul might not be able to stop bleeding of the but there is one thing they can do- keep intervening on behalf of its . Unlike before, there are huge reserves, about 250 worth of, and they can be used to support Won.

Very likely scenario, as of this writing, is continued fall of Korean equities, in tune with broader declines. The Won should also keep dropping, but in much more measured and steady pace. Central has not mentioned what the comfortable level for USD-KRW is, but as we noticed over last few years, major trends are very powerful and can go through any “line in the sand’ drawn by anybody.

is around 1150. Even with expected , Won can easily weaken to 1300 and maybe 1400, but far short of the previous low of 1600. Also, one shouldn’t look for a fast move, but rather steady , lasting a year or two. This is not a situation for active traders, but for those who prefer longer term positions development might present good opportunity for farther selling of KRW.

Mike P. Kulej is a Chief Strategist for Spectrum . He specializes in mechanical systems as explained on http://www.spectrumforex.com . Spectrum offers numerous services to . He also publishes http://www.fxmadness.com. With questions and e- him at kulej@spectrumforex.com

Forex Scalping Systems - A Route To Financial Freedom Scalping Regular Small Profits

Posted in articles | Monday, October 13th, 2008 | No Comments »

scalping is a method of price moves within daily , with the of making small with low . The ultimate is to make big long term . It’s the most popular form of for traders - let’s look at the of using this method.

Unfortunately scalping good in theory - but does not in practice.

There are however numerous vendors claiming it works all with great track records, so how do they do it?

Well the disclaimer below will answer this question, take a read and you will see why these track records are not all they appear to be:

“ RULE 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated have certain limitations. Unlike an actual , simulated results do not represent actual . Also, since the have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain factors, such as lack of . Simulated programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the of . No representation is being made that any will or is likely to achieve profit or similar to those shown”.

Find a scalping or day system online for sale with a track record of gains and your almost certain to see the disclaimer above (Or similar wording) and of course there is then a problem with the track record - in term of you making .

The track record has been simulated in KNOWING the closing prices.

I am sure by 10 year old daughter could beat , if she could trade knowing the closing prices however, that’s not reality - the reality is not knowing what will happen next is very hard.

So why doesn’t scalping ?

The answer is easy, the is to short to get the on your side, all short term is of a random and daily ranges cannot be used to get the on your side.

The problem is there are traders in every corner of the , all with different systems, strategies, varying levels of expertise, with diverse opinions and you can throw into the mix as well.

So millions upon millions of and you are going to try and calculate what this vast will do in a few hours or minutes? to you, if you fancy a try, I have been for 25 years and it’s a challenge I think is impossible.

Many traders simply throw themselves head first into scalping without questioning its dumb .

They follow systems that have never been traded and then wonder why they lose - don’t try it, unless you want to wipe your equity out.

The first thing you need to do is trade longer term, where you can calculate the .

You then need to be realistic about what you can make and get the right .

You can make a of in and in some the made can be life changing; it remains one of the few ventures in life where you can start with small stakes and get rich, just make sure you get the on your side first, learn the correct information and you can enjoy .

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Learning to Trade the Forex Market

Posted in currency trading | Sunday, December 30th, 2007 | No Comments »

Gerald Greene asked:


Learning to trade is very easy. Learning to trade well and at a profit is much more of a challenge.

There are a why learning to trade is a worthwhile . , or exchange is the of them all in the field. are in the of dollars. The huge size of the reflects the basic use of in the modern world.

This every day of the week means that the skilled has a virtually unlimited of to tap into. When you never have to about the size of the pot. It will always be as much as you can possibly handle.

After learning to trade successful traders can make hundreds, even thousands, of dollars a day right from their computer. One of the most successful traders of all time, , once made over a in just a time by correctly forecasting that the of would not be able to defend an overvalued . Once Soros had completed his analysis he took and placed a large against the Pound. As the Pound collapsed Soros made his .

The following are a few good reasons to why learning to trade may be a good idea for those who have to trade with:

1. The is where the big is. There are really no limits as to what a skilled can make.

2. The is worldwide and in major like the US , the , Japanese , and is quite active. You can trade around the five days a week.

3. The is highly liquid. This means that there is always a tight dealing quote at which you can buy or sell active .

4. usually comes at you fast. Your trade will most often move into profit or hit a point very quickly.

5. usually one way for . It is not unusual for a to have a major in one direction for three to five years at a time. When you trade with the major this gives you a edge.

6. are low. Major can be traded even by small traders at dealing spreads of two to three .

If there is one point above all others about learning to trade it is this one. Your chances of having a successful outcome to your trade are increased tremendously when you trade with the major . When you enter your trade on a reaction (correction) within the your of completing a successful trade increase even further.

For example, let’s say that you have identified the as being in a major against the US . This is easy to do by looking at a long term chart of the against the US . Instead of immediately rushing into the and buying the you wait until a correction takes place, as they often do, and you buy the on a to its long term line. This takes some and to do but the payoff can be huge.

As the major kicks in your position is immediately in profit. Then you have the pleasant decision to make as to when to take your profit. Learning to trade can be broken down into a series of like this. The key is careful analysis as to the direction of the and then waiting for a good entry point. and are the hallmarks of the most successful traders.

In getting started in learning to trade setting up a free with an online is recommended. play is not the same as your own real but by starting with a you can learn how to best set up and use the platform without putting your at during the learning process.



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