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Back in 1997 major financial slump rocked number of countries in Asia, an event that became known as “Asian currency crisis”. Effected countries included Taiwan, Thailand South Korea and others. One of the memorable comments of the time came from one of leading Thai politicians. He blamed this whole mess on speculators, with George Soros being the main culprit. The remarks went so far as to public statement of “not being able to guarantee his safety if he visited Thailand”. Quite ominous.

The fallout in South Korea was brutal. The US Dollar has about doubled in value against the Won, with USD-KRW moving from just above 800 in early 1997, to 1600 by the year’s end. Local stock market suffered similar fate, as did all areas of economy. Perhaps most telling was an enormous spike in unemployment, as the jobless rate soared to almost double digits, with about 9 million people out of work.

This author observed the aftermath first hand, during one of his business trips to South Korea at that time. Collapse of once high flying conglomerate Daewoo under burden of debt. The sight of many construction projects suspended or stopped all over Seoul and Pusan. Daily failure of scores of small business. It was good time to visit South Korea, due to low prices, but very difficult period for residents.

The country has rebounded nicely since then and became one of Asia’s most dynamic economies. KRW strengthen considerably reaching level 900 against USD in 2007. The stock market has recorded double digit gains in four of the last five years, gaining 32% in last year alone. Korean companies like Samsung Electronics Co, and Hyundai Motors Co, have established themselves as some of the world’s leading corporations.

Things have changed in 2008. Challenges like high oil prices, inflation, external debt and account deficit have shaken investors confidence. While many countries have seen outflow of funds into the dollar, this process became especially painful in South Korea. The Won has become the Asia’s worst performing currency, loosing 20% to date. Stock market was no better, falling 25%, with farther sell off of equities expected.

These developments created widely spread comparisons to situation from 1997 and were quick to be picked by the press. International Monetary Fund disagrees with this assessment and expressed confidence by saying that South Korea is a mature and resilient economy with country’s fundamentals much stronger than a decade ago. Korean financial authorities, however, felt obligated to act by intervention on Wons behalf in the open market. This seemed to stop the bleeding for now.

What can be expected next? In all reality, 1997 type sell off is extremely unlikely. As South Korean economy is cooling down together with the rest of the world, Seoul might not be able to stop bleeding of the stock market but there is one thing they can do- keep intervening on behalf of its currency. Unlike before, there are huge foreign reserves, about 250 billion dollars worth of, and they can be used to support Won.

Very likely scenario, as of this writing, is continued fall of Korean equities, in tune with broader stock declines. The Won should also keep dropping, but in much more measured and steady pace. Central Bank has not mentioned what the comfortable level for USD-KRW is, but as we noticed over last few years, major trends are very powerful and can go through any “line in the sand’ drawn by anybody.

Current rate is around 1150. Even with expected interventions, Won can easily weaken to 1300 and maybe 1400, but far short of the previous low of 1600. Also, one shouldn’t look for a fast move, but rather steady depreciation, lasting a year or two. This is not a situation for active traders, but for those who prefer longer term positions current development might present good opportunity for farther selling of KRW.

Mike P. Kulej is a Chief Forex Strategist for Spectrum Forex LLC. He specializes in mechanical trading systems as explained on http://www.spectrumforex.com . Spectrum Forex LLC offers numerous services to individual traders. He also publishes trading blog http://www.fxmadness.com. With questions and comments e-mail him at kulej@spectrumforex.com

It is hard to believe, that events in a small country with a population of just 320,000 people could have world wide effect. Flooded with a deluge of information during first 10 days of October, most traders probably didn’t even register what was happening in Iceland. Yet it might have been there, according to some market watchers, where the current financial turmoil began.

Over last few years Icelandic Krona has been very high yielding currency, paying more than 15%. For this reason, it has been popular choice in the “carry” play enjoyed by many traders against mainly Japanese Yen an Swiss Franc. This pushed the ISK to lofty levels, which, in turn, helped fuel the expansion of Icelandic financial sector, especially its banks. The nations three banks established branches abroad, mainly in UK and Europe. Business flourished.

During the “unwind of carry trade” in summer last year, Krona experienced a sell off, which was seen, at the time, as temporary. However things got a lot worse earlier this year, during Bear Stern’s bailout. ISK’s slide continued and was much steeper than any other currency. With financial sector being disproportionately large relative to country’s economy, Iceland started to suffer. In fact, authorities launched an investigation into, what was seen as, hedge fund attack.

The nations three banks, Glitnir, Landsbanki and Kaupthing Bank, found it increasingly difficult to refinance debt over last two months as credit crunch shook the world. One by one banks have become insolvent and had to taken over by the Finance Ministry. Krona plummeted and the country became unable to meet banks obligation, leaving behind shocked investors and depositors. That include hundreds of thousands of people who have accounts in Icelandic banks abroad operations.

During the week of October the 10th, as financial markets were in turmoil world wide, ISK came under even more strain. Losses reached 30-40% against major currencies in just few days. The latest publicly available quote was EUR-ISK at 304, which is completely of the chart. By Friday even central banks stopped making market for Krona and trading has stopped. For all practical purposes this leaves Iceland bankrupt as a nation, first sovereign state to fall victim to this crisis.

In perhaps the most telling example of how far the troubles progressed, United Kingdom threatened legal action against Iceland as a country. The aim of such step is to recover money on UK’s citizens, which is stranded in failed banks. Great Britain could invoke anti terrorism laws in an effort to regain the funds. Such move would leave the small nation isolated in more than geographical sense.

Thankfully, probability of such drastic, panic driven measures is low. It is expected that the government of Iceland will ask International Monetary Fund for assistance. Organization has the funds to help, especially since, in global terms, the sums involved are manageable. In order to qualify for IMS intervention, country would have to accept some harsh terms and conditions. One of them might be very difficult to come to terms with, the future of Krona.

Some people argue that in order to avoid future problems of this magnitude, Iceland should apply for inclusion into European Union and adopt Euro. Since most of laws and regulations of the island nation are already compatible with EU, this would be a relatively painless process. Another option is to peg Krona to Euro. In that case, Iceland would also hand over control of monetary policy, including the setting of interest rates, to the European Central Bank.

Both of these options will be a tough choice for independent minded Iceland. Both of them would also effectively put an end to a freely floating currency. It seems, as of this writing, that Krona’s days are numbered. One less choice for Forex traders, even though little known and understood.

Mike P. Kulej is a Chief Forex Strategist for Spectrum Forex LLC. He specializes in mechanical trading systems as explained on http://www.spectrumforex.com. Spectrum Forex LLC offers numerous services to individual traders. He also publishes trading blog http://www.fxmadness.com. With questions and comments e-mail him at kulej@spectrumforex.com.

With financial markets in turmoil, press is full of speculation regarding US dollar and Euro. A lot of coverage is given to unprecedented commodities boom, especially record prices for oil and grains. Precious and industrial metals also draw a lot of attention. Credit and debt markets have been on front pages for a couple of years now. Let’s not forget about stock markets, which, both in US and globally, are experiencing wild swings with seemingly no end in sight.

With so much going on, it’s no wonder that some very large moves in currencies have escaped attention, or at least wide coverage. British Pound, for one, has not been mentioned as often as it deserves. Same goes to Swiss Franc, and by extension, the cross of these two currencies, GBP-CHF.

Despite being one of speculator’s favorite financial vehicle, this pair seems to be living in a shadow of it’s cousin, GBP-JPY, which gets far more coverage from Forex analysts. This fact is likely due to much more vaunted stature of Japanese Yen, while Swiss Franc is so much correlated to Euro, that has been loosing trading volume to other currencies, most notably both Australian and Canadian Dollars. By some accounts, even Swedish Krone has reached comparable trading volume about a year ago.

That is when Franc started to regain some of its past luster as a safe heaven during times of uncertainty and financial turmoil. Swiss central bank started to bust interest rates and CHF staged a very impressive rally, lasting better part of a year. Combined with bearish news coming from Great Brittan, GBP-CHF has seen the most severe sell off amongst CHF crosses.

Between July 2007 and March 2008 this pair fell from 2.5000 to 1.9375. That is a staggering 5600+ pips, a huge move by any standard. In fact, it has been first time in over 10 years, and only the second time ever, that this cross fell under 2.0000, a very important psychological level. As it is often the case in such furious moves, the price rebounded sharply from the March low to about 2.0960 and has since settled into a sideways movement.

This “settled price action” is a relative term and true only in light of past few month. Comparing to other currency pairs, daily moves are still large. Average True Range still shows a reading well over 200, and 300+ pips days are the norm. Just last Thursday daily range was over 420 pips. Certainly this kind of volatility demands respect and creates trading opportunities.

Extreme price fluctuations might make it unsuitable for some traders. Also, trading GBP-CHF on short time frames, might be an expensive proposition. The spread, cost of trading, is still relatively wide. Even though over last few years spreads narrowed down, they are still minimum of 6 pips, with 8-10 pips being the norm. In frequent trading, even the larger profit potential might not offset these costs.

Trading longer time frames might be a better proposition for most traders. The recent low of 1.9375 seems to be a major low, which is likely hold for the the rest of this year. As a matter of fact, patterns on long term charts, weekly and monthly, indicate this to be a multi year low. Long term up trend is expected for the rest of the year with a target of 2.1600-2.1800 over next few months. After that next target would be 2.3000 or perhaps even 2.3500, maybe a year later.

This kind of long term expectations should be reviewed and adjusted every few months. As of this writing, the price is around 2.0470, providing us with a substantial long term trading opportunity. Due to large volatility of this pair, one shouldn’t use high leverage as there are almost sure to be severe pullbacks over time. While not suitable for everybody, GBP-CHF is certainly an exciting cross, worth of a closer look.

Mike P. Kulej is a Chief Forex Strategist for Spectrum Forex LLC. He specializes in mechanical trading systems as explained on http://www.spectrumforex.com Spectrum Forex LLC offers numerous services to individual traders. With questions and comments e-mail him at kulej@spectrumforex.com

How would you like to make extra cash without much effort of either time nor money? Sure, who wouldn’t enjoy an extra income stream to fund your lifestyle or to help cover the bills. If you’re familiar with the foreign exchange market, than you know that both of these options can be true, but how can you know if investing in the foreign exchange market is for you?

Then just what exactly is required to trade on the forex market? The requirements are actually quite simple, as the only things you will need is a personal computer, a little capital to get started, and a trading plan to execute your trades.

Since the forex is a global market that operates 24 hours a day, and almost seven days a week, all of the trading is done via computer. This holds true for both individual traders as well as seasoned investment firms. The only difference is in the power of their software and the amount of money they are willing to invest.

The barriers of entry into the forex market are low, and you can start trading with as little as a dollar. Obviously, you will reap much better rewards if you invest $100,000 than if you were to invest only only $5. However, you can always start small and reinvest your winnings. This is a great way to quickly increase your forex trading leverage while using a small initial investment. Many brokers have used this technique of only reinvesting earnings to great success and very little risk.

Finally, the biggest skill, and most often the largest stumbling block to new investors is having the discipline to follow the market. Since the foreign exchange market can move quickly, many inexperienced investors can lose their confidence and begin making rash decisions. This is the worst thing to do, and many fortunes have been lost this way. Trading Forex is done by the numbers. It is best to have a proven system and to follow it exactly. There are many programs out there that will do exactly that, taking the guesswork out of investing. Either way, once you have a system in place, it is important to stick to it and not let emotions get in the way of your trading.

If you would like to venture into making some extra, and sometimes a lot of extra money, and think you have the discipline and a little capital to work with, than investing in the foreign exchange market is for you.

Peter Aldrich highly recommends Forex Automoney to generate profits overnight and trade like a Pro. Be sure to take advantage of their trial membership and feel free to take his Forex Automoney Challenge

When we speak about the difference between new traders and professional traders a lot of differences stand out. There is actually a pretty long list of these, but I think we should focus on a topic that should definitely help our readers. When I talk to new traders I find most don’t have a valid system. A system is not focused around gut reactions or feelings about the market. A system is a tested and disciplined plan of attack that is emotionless and stubborn. All too often new traders jump into trading futures without a plan or objectives. Typically, most new traders use a system based on outside information or feelings. This is almost always disastrous; due to the fact successful traders are not typically lucky. A personal system is a must have if you want consistent success.

If you’ve been exposed to futures trading for a while you have received emails and read ads offering systems you can trade, or even automated systems you can obtain for a price. Surprisingly enough a personal trading system doesn’t take a guru to figure out. Successful systems come from testing , back testing , and market indicators that you trust and understand. As a Broker and Advisor I have taught clients how to create their own system. Sometimes if it fits I’ll teach them my own. So let’s talk about the main keys to developing your own personal system.

1) Pick a market- Find a market you have an interest in and understand and track it. It is important to remember not all markets act alike. Get familiar with it and get to know how it reacts to news and fundamental information. See how much volume it has and get a feel.

2) Know the cost- Know whether or not the margin and contract size truly fits your comfort level. If you trade Crude Oil and your sweating the high volatility and large margin, it may not be for you.

3) Entry and Exit plan- Develop an entry and exit plan, and stay disciplined. A good system never deviates. Don’t adjust it mid trade. Stay disciplined.

4) Test It - Most brokers offer simulated trading platforms to test your system. Keep testing it and back testing it until it makes sense on paper. If your trial runs out get another one. Don’t put you money on it until you’ve worked out the kinks.

5) Make it emotionless- If you are creating a system and you still get stomach aches after you enter the trade your system is not emotionless. If it has been tested and makes sense, you ought to be able to walk away and do something else. The best systems ought to have solid execution areas. Once in what happens next shouldn’t consume you. You have you stop losses and profit objectives, just let it work.

6) Expect not to win on every trade - Even the best system has a losing trade once in a while. Don’t scrap a system if it wins only 55% of the time, refine it.

The ideas expressed and the data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but can not be guaranteed. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients. Those acting on this information are responsible for their own actions.

I hope some of these tips help. A successful trader must use a valid system in order to be successful. It doesn’t have to be complex either. My own personal system is as simplistic as it gets. It’s also easy to teach. I like to keep it simple while some others feel comfortable with complexity, but its mine and I like it. If you’d like a preview of it I’ll be glad to pass it along for free. Use it as a template if you like. johnmorgan@tradersadvantagepro.com

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John has been helping traders trade futures and options for years. As a broker and advisor he has decided to write weekly newsletters in an effort to help individual traders trade http://www.tradersadvantagepro.com

Breaking A 24-Hour Market Into Manageable Trading Sessions
While a 24-hour market offers a considerable advantage for many institutional and individual traders because it guarantees liquidity and the opportunity to trade at any conceivable time, it also has its drawbacks.Although currencies can be traded any time, a trader can only monitor a position for so long. This means that there will be times of missed opportunities, or worse, when a jump in volatility will lead the spot to move against an established position when the trader isn’t around. To minimize this risk, a trader needs to be aware of when the market is typically volatile and decide what times are best for his or her strategy and trading style. (For more, see Trade To Your Taste.)

Traditionally, the market is separated into three sessions during which activity peaks: the Asian; European; and North American sessions. More casually, these three periods are also referred to as the Tokyo, London and New York sessions. These names are used interchangeably as the three cities represent the major financial centers for each of the regions. The markets are most active when these three powerhouses are conducting business as most banks and corporations make their day-to-day transactions and there is a greater concentration of speculators online. Now let’s take a closer look at each of these sessions. (For more, see how does the foreign-exchange market trade 24 hours a day?)

Asian Session (Tokyo)
When liquidity is restored to the forex (or, FX) market after the weekend passes, the Asian markets are naturally the first to see action. Unofficially, activity from this part of the world is represented by the Tokyo capital markets, which are live from midnight to 6am Greenwich Mean Time. However, there are many other countries with considerable pull that are present during this period including China, Australia, New Zealand and Russia, among others. Considering how scattered these markets are, it stands to reason that the beginning and end of the Asian session are stretched beyond the standard Tokyo hours. Allowing for these different markets’ activity, Asian hours are often considered to run between 11pm and 8am GMT.

European Session (London)
Later in the trading day, just before the Asian trading hours come to a close, the European session takes over in keeping the currency market active. This FX time zone is very dense and includes a number of major financial markets that could stand in as the symbolic capital. However, London ultimately takes the honors in defining the parameters for the European session. Official business hours in London run between 7:30am and 3:30pm GMT. Once again though, this trading period is expanded due to other capital markets’ presence (including Germany and France) before the official open in the U.K.; while the end of the session is pushed back as volatility holds until the London fix after the close. Therefore, European hours are typically seen as running from 7am to 4pm GMT.

North American Session (New York)
By the time the North American session comes on line, the Asian markets have already been closed for a number of hours, but the day is only half through for European traders. The Western session is dominated by activity in the U.S. with few contributions from Canada, Mexico and a number of countries in South America. As such, it comes as little surprise that activity in New York City marks the high in volatility and participation for the session. Taking into account the early activity in financial futures, commodity trading and the concentration of economic releases the North American hours unofficially begin at noon GMT. With a considerable gap between the close of the U.S. markets and open of the Asian trading, a lull in liquidity sets the close of New York exchange trading at 8pm GMT as the North American session close.

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