Trading Forex - New Korean Currency Crisis?

Back in 1997 major slump rocked number of countries in Asia, an event that became known as “Asian crisis”. Effected countries included Taiwan, Thailand South and others. One of the memorable of the time came from one of leading Thai . He blamed this whole mess on , with being the main . The remarks went so far as to public statement of “not being able to guarantee his safety if he visited Thailand”. Quite ominous.

The fallout in South was brutal. The US has about doubled in value against the Won, with USD-KRW from just above 800 in early 1997, to 1600 by the year’s end. Local suffered similar , as did all areas of . Perhaps most telling was an enormous spike in , as the jobless soared to almost double , with about 9 million out of .

This author observed the aftermath first hand, during one of his trips to South at that time. of once high flying conglomerate Daewoo under burden of . The sight of many construction projects suspended or stopped all over Seoul and Pusan. Daily of scores of small . It was good time to visit South , due to low prices, but very difficult period for residents.

The has rebounded nicely since then and became one of Asia’s most dynamic economies. KRW strengthen considerably reaching level 900 against USD in 2007. The has recorded double digit gains in four of the last five years, gaining 32% in last year alone. like Samsung Electronics Co, and Hyundai Motors Co, have established themselves as some of the world’s leading .

Things have changed in 2008. like high , , external and deficit have shaken . While many countries have seen outflow of funds into the , this process became especially painful in South . The Won has become the Asia’s worst performing , loosing 20% to date. was no better, falling 25%, with farther sell off of equities expected.

These developments created widely spread comparisons to situation from 1997 and were quick to be picked by the press. International Monetary Fund disagrees with this assessment and expressed by saying that South is a mature and resilient with ’s fundamentals much stronger than a decade ago. Korean authorities, however, felt obligated to by intervention on Wons behalf in the open . This seemed to stop the bleeding for now.

What can be expected next? In all reality, 1997 type sell off is extremely unlikely. As South Korean is cooling down together with the , Seoul might not be able to stop bleeding of the but there is one thing they can do- keep intervening on behalf of its . Unlike before, there are huge reserves, about 250 worth of, and they can be used to support Won.

Very likely scenario, as of this writing, is continued fall of Korean equities, in tune with broader declines. The Won should also keep dropping, but in much more measured and steady pace. Central has not mentioned what the comfortable level for USD-KRW is, but as we noticed over last few years, major trends are very powerful and can go through any “line in the sand’ drawn by anybody.

is around 1150. Even with expected , Won can easily weaken to 1300 and maybe 1400, but far short of the previous low of 1600. Also, one shouldn’t look for a fast move, but rather steady , lasting a year or two. This is not a situation for active traders, but for those who prefer longer term positions development might present good opportunity for farther selling of KRW.

Mike P. Kulej is a Chief Strategist for Spectrum . He specializes in mechanical systems as explained on http://www.spectrumforex.com . Spectrum offers numerous services to . He also publishes http://www.fxmadness.com. With questions and e- him at kulej@spectrumforex.com

Investments in Costa Rica - Not Exactly What You Think

in Costa Rica?… isn’t that an island?…somewhere in the Caribbean?

My wife and I moved to Costa Rica six years ago from the frigid of Minnesota where we had owned a printing for 15 years. For as long as we could remember we had worked 12 hour days and spent most of our time figuring out how to stay even…getting wasn’t even in the .

Then 9/11 happened. And for us it was an epiphany. Life was too short to spend the balance of our lives on a treadmill that went nowhere. We accelerated our by almost ten years.
And over the next year we sold everything we owned and eventually found ourselves in Costa Rica (which, mind you, we had only visited once previously…and on vacation at that !).

? In retrospect, sure. To move to a where we knew no one, didn’t know the language and our only exposure was the internet? Of course, it was .

But…we loved it, even in of the fact that life here was completely different than the portrayed or the internet showed. We rented a small about an hour outside of San Jose in a community which was rural, coffee and yet still large enough to have a hospital and within 45 minutes of the main airport.

And we purchased land…and we built a house. And luckily, Rhonda had the to deal with the local builders, even though we didn’t understand much Spanish. I still remained a type A and the manana drove me crazy.

And much of the and construction was definitely not in any “how to…” book that we ever found. And we definitely made mistakes. But luckily they didn’t hurt us TOO much financially. And we asked a of questions and we learned, little by little, how the functioned in Costa Rica.

And we decided that we wanted to let others know the things that we had to learn the hard way. We started a company whose sole was to present properties which reflected prices that locals paid…because there is a two tier in Costa Rica…one for “gringos” and one for Ticos (locals, as Costa Ricans call themselves).

Because there are very few rules or regulations for here, our “exposure” of the didn’t make us very popular with other . (remember, Costa Rica is a VERY small …about the size of West Virginia or Houston). So our website didn’t exactly endear us to local agents who were used to charging whatever prices and that they thought the would bear.

And slowly we began to get a …admittedly, some was good, some bad…depending upon who you talked to. And we began to get …unsolicited from magazines like Newsweek and Daily. And our grew. And grew some more.

As our grew we began to meet more from Costa Rica…some influential, some not… some quality, some not. And we became exposed to many more types of that were totally to us. And we learned who really “controls” the and which and have the influence to make policy. To illustrate how much of our was “coincidence” (and I personally do not believe in coincidences… I believe that they happen for a ) our third attorney was introduced to us purely second hand at a local gathering; “coincidentally” his wife was from Minnesota…Rhonda was then invited to a weekly gathering of “gringas”, all of which married Ticos 35-40 years ago and who have now ALL become very influential ; e.g., Minister of ; Minister of Agriculture and two other former cabinet members.

Because of our organization (see it here: www.cr-.com) we are able to see daily what are seeking and watch the ebb and flow of interest. And not only are we able to areas of interest but also types of properties or homes that are attracting the most interest…e.g., we know that beach properties or condominiums at present are receiving very little interest and the high end beach properties are very slow. We have our own hypotheses as to why this is occurring but we are dealing with “what is”, not what we think “should be”…nor do we look for esoteric to explain the status. We are big believers in the KISS …” keep it simple, .”

Over the past three years we have made a number of here…none have shown a loss and others have turned a 100% return within a 60 day period. Some have unrealized . We have yet to take a loss. Please understand here that we are not professional (if there indeed is such an animal)… we have simply taken of situations that we consider to be extremely low . WE ARE NOT SIMPLY “HOPPING ON THE COSTA RICAN BANDWAGON”…because if we had done that, we would have already a significant amount of .

Let me explain…
Our website and mission statement is all about value…and it is about and knowing “the good, bad and ” BEFORE buying. Too many get caught up in the and of Costa Rica and buy on . And these are the that ultimately run the of losing their entire . (con men and exist everywhere but are more common here simply because of the lack of comprehensive rules and regulations concerning and construction). That being said…we attract a different type of clientele…one that typically wants to ensure that he gets the most value for his or her ….and definitely not one that is an buyer. We deal primarily with the “baby boomer” who is looking at Costa Rica as a destination AND the buyer who wants to ensure that he or she gets the most value for their .
And the above illustrates the best, most concise why our is almost and not affected by the “subprime crisis” and will allow us to continue to capitalize of various forms of in Costa Rica.

So…now that we have established our background…WHY are we recommending Costa Rica as a basis for specific types of ?
We are not attempting to “sell” Costa Rica because we expect anyone who is examining Costa Rica as an to do their own . So…
- Costa Rica is to the longest democracy in Latin America. Its stability is unquestioned and it is allied closely with the U.S.
- Almost a third of the land mass of Costa Rica is set aside for national parks. Costa Ricans themselves are huge lovers of wildlife, flora and fauna.
- There is virtually no mineral exploration and absolutely no oil drilling in Costa Rica for environmental protection.
- The literacy in Costa Rica exceeds that of the States or Canada.
- Medical care is superb and available to everyone…even to those who are unable to pay.
- Costa Rica is more familiar to Americans than nearly any other destination…for vacation. Nearly everyone who has visited Costa Rica wants to return and, in fact, Costa Rica has the highest return for of any other destination in the world.
- While Costa Rica is technically a “second world ”, its infrastructure is excellent.
- Costa Rica’s , while operating at a deficit, is in excellent .
- Costa Rica has no standing , thus expends no funds on a national defense.
- Costa Rica espouses family values and many visitors liken it to the States from the 50s. The pace of living is slower and the Costa Rican (Ticos) have different values than their counter parts in America and Canada.
- There are literally of microclimates within a two hour drive from anywhere in the . Where else can you drive for a day and see two oceans, several volcanoes, sandy , mountains, waterfalls, lakes, rain forests, cloud forests, agricultural land, hot springs, wildlife preserves, and much much more…?
- Cost of living estimated at approximately 30% of equivalent cost in the States or Canada.
- An estimated 30% of the speaks or understand some degree of English.
This is only the abbreviated version of the positives of Costa Rica…other countries such as nearby Panama, Nicaragua and Mexico are attempting to woo the “baby ” but OUR is that the “blue chip” of Latin American will almost always win out. Just because land in Nicaragua or Panama maybe 20% cheaper or because the government offers one time incentives to expats….does not necessarily mean that it is worth the of your hard earned savings. Weigh the . Some say that Costa Rica is overpriced…some say that its time has passed for …we say “take a look at the number of that visit here…and that return…do your …then make your decision.”

Okay, we have subjectives about Costa Rica and why visit here and keep returning. Now we need facts.
During the first six months of 2008, more than 125,000 visited Costa Rica…and this is a 16% increase over last year. And remember, this is in a so called which is worldwide. Don’t believe that the will continue?…try this: ask your what their are of Costa Rica or what they have heard ABOUT Costa Rica. I can guarantee that the responses will be overwhelmingly positive. Subjective ? Yes, but still highly convincing and you will not get these types of responses from any other location or destination.

Numbers of weekly airline flights are climbing…ranging from American Airlines with 43, to Continental with 25, with 24 down to Spirit and U.S. Airways each with 7. This does obviously not take into visitors from other parts of the . Currently, the States and Canada for over half of all visitors and to Costa Rica. Europe accounts for nearly 20% and the , the balance. This is another good rationale why our is expanding instead of collapsing like many of the local have predicted…the in the States is more than counterbalanced by Canada (which is experiencing a VERY strong and a very strong ) and … who are also experiencing gains with the rise of the vs. the and other . The Costa Rican is simply not dependent upon one or group of to experience strong interest. And please also keep in mind that Costa Rican is a microcosm of Economics 101…the areas of interest for the “” and second buyers are small and it is easy to see that there are more buyers than sellers (which is really what the are all about… remember our KISS theory?)

We have established statistically that more and more visitors are arriving in Costa Rica. Now we need to establish a base for our …and it is primarily centered upon the huge number of “baby ” which are just beginning their years. We do not need a huge elaboration as to why “” are examining overseas destinations in increasing numbers…but here are a few of the major reasons:
- Cost of living…it is no that costs of almost everything are climbing daily. The equivalent cost of living in Costa Rica is roughly a third as much.
- Medical care is excellent and only at a of the cost.
- There is a tremendous amount of here and an almost unending list of activities and sightseeing which is available daily…you will definitely never be bored!
- Stable government and environment.
- High literacy and are genuinely friendly.
- Only a short plane ride from the States.
- Infrastructure is good and water is drinkable everywhere in the .
- The banking system is excellent and safe.
- There is a huge amount of flora and fauna here which is literally unequalled anywhere in the world…and over 25% of the ’s land is set aside for national parks.
- Land and construction is still extremely affordable by comparison.
- Crime is still relatively low, especially when compared to its counterparts and “competition”.
Okay, now that we have established that Costa Rica is a viable, growing and stable AND that the “” have the potential to have a major influence on the in Costa Rica…let’s pinpoint specifics which will allow us to make significant gains:
Most “gringos” say that they would prefer beach living. The reality is that over 50% of all who buy on the beach sell within five years. We have found over the past five years that most gringos prefer acreage with the following features:
- Views…either the ocean from a distance or the Central Valley
- Access to good medical and professional services
- Not “too remote”
- Good and dining within a reasonable drive.
- Internet availability…good infrastructure
- More moderate temperatures
- More rural than urban but still amenities available closeby
- Within a “reasonable” drive to an international airport.
- Private, but not too private; i.e., nearby but not TOO close.
- At least half to an acre of land…river, waterfall or lake if possible.
- Fruit trees and other vegetation a major plus.

With the above in mind, Rhonda and I settled in Grecia which was approximately from the ’s major airport, 45 minutes from a first class hospital (yet only 10 minutes to a municipal hospital, in Grecia). We chose to be in the mountains overlooking the town and the Central Valley. Major was 45 minutes away as was “better dining” and (for me) bookstores. Notice how we the above “profile”? BTW, we also had a river on our property. Why do we bring this up here?…because our “property preferences” were (and are) the same as 80% of most gringos that move to Costa Rica to retire (full or .)

Next factor: there are very very few rules and regulations when it comes to and construction in this . There are ways to protect yourself legally but there are no sure methods of ascertaining what is a “fair and honest” price. There is no MLS system and there is not a system of comparables. For the most part, is bought and sold the way it has been for …primarily . This is specifically why flock to the industry…because of “net selling” or the that it is almost impossible to know what is a fair price. (net selling refers to “marking up” a property over and above what the wishes to “net…very commonplace here.)

Next: There are very few American style here… and Tico houses simply are not satisfactory for 98% of “gringos” that move here (lower ceilings, smaller rooms, not enough land, no 220V power, no views, etc). This obviously brings up the logical …if there is a , and it appears that it is highly skewed in favor of the sellers…is there an opportunity here to capitalize on that imbalance? (for those of you who are thinking here…remodeling is difficult because almost all construction here is block and steel and all wiring and plumbing is encased in concrete…remodeling costs actually exceed “STARTING FROM ”.)

Because there is a two tier here…one for locals and one for “everyone else” it is important to ensure that pricing received is comparable to others of comparison (as much as possible in a where “comparables” are simply conversation over coffee.) A “gringo” certainly can look for his or her own property but it is almost a guarantee that prices will be at least 50% higher as locals share the common that “gringos” have trees “back ” and that we will pay almost “any asking price” because we don’t know the or the area.

And remember we know the …who is buying, what they are seeking and what they will pay. And then obviously the determination has to be made if it is possible to make a profit.

The last item to take into is the of Costa Rican land itself…without the “gringo factor”. Ticos (Costa Ricans) are accustomed to an of around 12% annually and many compensate by buying additional land and simply holding hard . And when selling, Ticos know that if they do not get their price today…they will in six months or in a year. The trick then becomes to truly know the and to be able to take of buyers that MUST sell and that need .

On to “brass tacks” and specifics…
1. The void of, and lack of, American style houses in many areas is crying to be filled. The following is a quick “down and dirty” summary of approximate to be made from such an : Land cost: (one acre…view property in Grecia or environs) $50,000; American style house of 3 , 1500-1600 sq. meters: $75,000…misc costs including architect, utilities and landscaping: $10,000. Selling price: $190-195,000, possibly more. Estimated gross ROI (before payout to limited partner or construction supervisor)…50%.

2. Smaller developments can be even more profitable…we prefer to stick with a much smaller number of homes as it is more manageable and you under the municipality’s radar…nothing illegal, just avoiding the possibility of locals swarming around with their hands out. Typically, we raise in smaller increments (shares) as the amounts normally exceed $250,000.

Profit estimates here are extraordinary.
3. Oftentimes, at least bimonthly, we see a property at an extraordinary price…one that we know is substantially below value. Sometimes these properties can be resold almost immediately…other times they involve buying a larger piece and reselling smaller units of land. A good example is a block of four quarter acre beach front parcels which are titled and located only 1 ½ hours from San Jose on the Central Pacific coast. The owner is in the States and is admittedly desperate. The units can be picked up as a whole and resold for at least a 50% profit (our opinion). They are RARE and gorgeous.

4. Recently, we were contacted by the owner of a small house in Grecia. We had previously listed it at a decent price…but no takers. It has a gorgeous view and the house needs probably $5000 worthy of . In our opinion, the owner is now willing to sell for close to land value only. Not a huge winner, but percentage wise, probably a 50% profit is available. Estimated ROI to the …50%+

5. Occasionally we are shown properties which have a “glitch” in their titles…not major problems but simple filings to correct them. “informacion processoria” properties are normally those which have passed down from family member to family member over the years without doing proper registration or filings. It is a simple matter for a competent attorney to correct the oversight (and, in many cases, it was simply not done for lack of funds). These properties can oftentimes be had at substantial discounts. A good example is a property currently being offered of nearly two acres just on the outskirts of San Jose…a suburb called Aserri. The property HAD to be sold (family emergency)…asking price was actually less than 20% of what comparable properties were currently selling for ADJACENT to this property. Estimated “fix” time is six months…properties like this do not often surface and, most of the time they are “no brainers”.

Now, we are the first to admit that 99.9% of that read about these are not able to do them themselves. This is why we have typically set up “arrangements” or agreements to handle the everyday details and carry the project from start to finish. Obviously, such as the Aserri property, or others that are shorter term that can be resold quickly, do not need “special handling”.

Hopefully, this overview has sparked your interest. We have nearly all of our …some before the physical and actual , other afterward. We have an annual pigroast in January and typically nearly all of our along with and from Costa Rica get together for fun and an overview of each status. In the past it has been a huge hit…plus of course, it is a great to come to Costa Rica.

If you have an interest in discussing of these forms… please or call us.

Randy and his wife Rhonda settled in Grecia six years ago and have built a company which has become , arguably, Costa Rica’s most recognized and company. You can see their website at http://www.cr-home.com All are invited!